The curious case of the Fourteenth

So I’m stuck here. As far as I can tell, there has been one poll in the fourteenth congressional race, and it has put Lampson ahead of Weber by a few points. Therefore, I would have considered this race to be a tossup. However, EVER major congressional reporting service lists it as “safe Republican”. I would like to hypothesize two reasons for this:

1. National Organizations are too cynical. The main reporting services I am running on are The New York Times, 270 to Win, and Cook. Real Clear Politics also puts in the “likely GOP” category, which is a little better–but not much. The school of thought here would be that the good people working the computers here are lazy, see a seat which has not put up a serious Democratic challenger in years, and just write it off. This seems quite feasible.

2. Burnt Orange Report, in their original article about this poll in question, implied that Lampson’s campaign was the one who released the poll. Now, there may be a chance that Lampson has become so inundated with the Austin spirit that he would put out excessively naive polls like the ones that showed Rick Perry was beatable. For the sake of one of my favorite Democrats in Texas though, I hope not.

Further, for the sake of our country, I hope the poll stands true. As I have said before, the District is quite favorable to Lampson. However, it will all boil down to how much Obama wins (or loses) by. If droves of people show up to the polls in Galveston and Beaumont to vote for the President, and pull the lever for the Ds, Lampson will win. If not, the fourteenth district is sending another wacko to the Washington.

One thought on “The curious case of the Fourteenth

  1. I did some research on Dave’s Redistricting App, played around with the districts a little bit. In the NEW 14th, 57% voted for McCain, but the “average Republican” vote, which factors in split tickets for people like Eiland, drops to under 54%. If Lampson is starting from a 46% base in 2010 terms, I see that the district is quite winnable, especially is Obama is re-elected.

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