National Musings

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=ztE&referring_service=email#.UFd6GyM0G4U.email

 

A few weeks ago, I prophesied that Obama would win the popular vote but lose the electoral college and therefore the election. I based this on the fact that I was somewhat confident that the state of Wisconsin would be in the red column. However, I have recently been notified of the GOP pulling ads from quite a lot of states they deem unattainable: New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Though they do not mention New Mexico or Nevada, both of these states are almost definitively going to vote for the President. Assuming a GOP North Carolina, and leaving the remaining states blank, this gives Obama 257 and Romney 206. The path for victory then becomes quite easy for Obama, as he would simply have to win Colorado and Iowa, of which he is comfortably ahead in both, or just one of the major swing states (Florida, Ohio, Virginia).

I still tend to think that polls are overestimating voter turnout and underestimating voter suppression (the coarse duo of Voter ID and the good-for-nothing-dirty-hippies of occupy), and that Romney has a pretty good shot at winning the three major swings as well as Iowa. For the good of all things holy on this holy day for me though, I hope he doesn’t.

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