Dave Martin is one lucky son-of-a-gun. Faced with what would be a shoe-in for a normal municipal election, he faced a real issue when it came to Sullivan’s integrity and frugality. Sullivan, the presumptive Tax Collector-elect, decided to give far advanced notice of his retirement, prompting a special election concurrent with the general in November. But there is a problem. Turnout is quite low in municipal elections, but the upside is there are not very many uninformed voters. A Presidential election may quadruple turnout, or more, for this City Council special election.
This brings the challenge of a lot of uninformed voters who only vote every other year (or every four). However, there is a saving grace for the frontrunner, Mr. Martin, his name is first on the ballot. Study after study has shown that if your name is first, it provides a tremendous advantage to uniformed voters simply trying to pick a candidate at random. However, I find that there could be chance that Martin is dragged into a runoff, and this is where it looks up for him.
Even if Martin comes in second place, with (I’m guessing Perez) having a mere plurality, a runoff would almost surely be won by him. Even in a Presidential election, the December runoff would not have more than about 10-15% turnout. This would again limit to the informed voters, who seem to be backing Martin with unparalleled numbers. Now, before some of the other candidates comment on here disputing my reasoning, the way I come to the decision that Martin is the front-runner is his support from Sullivan and the GOP establishment.