Castro 2014

Off the Kuff is linking to an article in the San Antonio Express-News about the growing “Castro for Governor 2014” crowd. They even have a website, listed here. The Bexar County Democratic Party is the official backbone of this movement.

I find this proposition to be cynical for three reasons:

1. Wasn’t there already some buzz about drafting Cecile Richards? Please, one movement at a time.
2. Castro has already said he wants to stay as SA Mayor until 2017. Governor Perry would love the ability to paint Castro as a liar.
3. Texas will not be, to borrow an old phrase, “ready for Prime Time” in 2014. Perry will be re-elected in 2014 (oh yes, mark my words) because the state will not be all that different, demographically than today. 2018 would be the first chance for the new and improved Texas, the one where Latinos vote en masse.

Now, to be fair, my friends from the Texas Democratic Party are telling me how much progress they are making and how 2014 might be competitive. I agree with them in that the TDP is making fantastic progress, but like how President Obama has been taking a long time to clean up all that crap that Bush left him, so will Chairman Hinojosa to the shambles that the party was given to him in. Progress is always easier said than done.
Additionally, if Obama is re-elected (for the record I still don’t think so), 2014 will be a bad year for Democrats, making any big Democratic upsets unlikely.

However, my response to the common critique that Perry will not last that long, I invite people to remember just how confident people were that Perry would lose in 2010. Now that Abbott, Combs, and Staples are all going after Dewhurst, I do not think Perry will face any major primary challenges. Alas, the election is far away, but my prediction is Texas will not be ready for Castro in 2014.

Of course, I am betting most of my political capital on Obama losing next week, so if that does not happen, I might be out of the election-predicting market.

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