Rasmussen Reports, a reputable nationwide polling house, has released its first poll of the 2014 Texas Gubernatorial Election. The poll asked 500 likely voters on Monday and Tuesday who they would support between now the official Democratic nominee, State Senator Wendy Davis, and Republican nominee, Attorney General Greg Abbott. The poll also asked who the voters trusted more on a slew of issues, including taxes, the economy, government corruption and social issues. The results paint a disastrous picture for the Davis campaign, one that should surely sound some alarm bells in Fort Worth if they are still serious about winning.
In addition to the aforementioned totals in this race (Abbott 53, Davis 41), one more percent selected some other candidate with a mere 5% still undecided. When divided by gender, Abbott leads men by a huge margin (66 to 29) while Davis actually leads among women (53 to 41). I’m not sure what the breakdown by race, ethnicity, geography or age is yet. Additionally, when the poll asked voters who they trusted more on taxes, economical issues, government corruption and social issues, Abbott was the clear favorite for all the choices. Admittedly, Davis did a little bit better on the social issues question, but was still trailing.
Rasmussen has an overall positive track record, but it does have a slight history of overfavoring Republicans, ever so slightly. This, no doubt, is directly connected to its history of being a little too conservative (pun intended) in determining their pool of likely voters. Still, Rasmussen is a respected national firm, and in polls like this, where the lead far exceeds any margin of error (which, for this poll, is +/-4.5%), there is little ambiguity. Wendy Davis is getting her clock cleaned, and time is running out before it is simply too late.
There was a nearly identical poll by the same polling firm conducted nearly four years ago exactly. Back then, Rasmussen pegged the race at “Rick Perry 49, Bill White 43,” exactly half the deficit the Democrats face today. Make no mistake, despite all the pontifications and equivocations about how Wendy Davis is in such a stronger position than Bill White because of all her campaign contributions, this sure has not translated into real results. In fact, one could very easily make the argument that Davis is in a worse position.
I would not be surprised if the Davis campaign’s response (if they deliver any, that is) is something along the lines of attacking the criteria Rasmussen used to establish the “likely” in likely voter. Organizations like Battleground Texas are the first to admit that Democrats will never win under the current electorate, only under an expanded one. Therefore, a case could be made that the people that Davis, the Texas Democratic Party and Battleground Texas have newly registered and engaged in the process are not showing up on the polls just yet.
Of course, if last Tuesday is any indication, they sure as hell aren’t showing up at the polls either.