2014’s first big poll

The Texas Tribune reports on a very comprehensive poll they conducted over just about every competitive primary in the State. The poll has a fairly substantial margin of error (upwards of 6% in the Democratic primary, specifically), so that is something to bear in mind when analyzing the results.

Simply put, the results paint a bad picture for the Democrats. Back at that time, Greg Abbott lead Wendy Davis by only five points; today, Abbott’s lead has grown to Eleven points. Other polls paint a similarly bleak picture for the Democrats, especially considering that these Texas Tribune polls have historically been overly generous to the Democratic candidate. Just a few days after that original Tribune poll, Public Policy Polling (a historically very accurate pollster) estimated Abbott’s lead at a whopping fifteen points. Accordingly, I am eager to see just how bad off the Democrats are doing when PPP releases its triannual February poll any day now.

Also of note here is that these polls were largely conducted before the Ted Nugent scandal really blew over regarding Greg Abbott’s campaign. Therefore, one could plausibly assert that this poll overvalues Davis’ problems emanating from “Trailergate” while simultaneously not taking to account Abbott’s recent woes. Among other issues with this poll was a misleading discrepancy between “registered” and “likely” voters. Additionally, the polls completely disregarded the portion of the electorate still undecided. I have recreated these polls with the undecideds built into the poll, as well as only taking note of the “registered” voters.

Click here for full results and graph!

US Senate Democratic primary gets heated

Just a few days ago, State Senator Wendy Davis –the presumptive Democratic nominee for Governor– endorsed a seemingly unknown businessman and dentist, David Alameel, in his quest to become the Democratic nominee for the US Senate. Alameel, as those from the DFW area may recall, ran for Congress last year in a gloriously unsuccessful race that saw him spend over $1k per vote.

However, it is Alameel’s ill-defined political views that have more recently gotten him in hot water. He ran on some pretty weird and conspiratorial platforms in his 2012 congressional campaign, specifically pertaining to the Federal Reserve and his belief that is tantamount to “private tender” and is run by the “Wall Street banking cartel.” There is also the persistent rumor that he took positions against abortion when he ran for Congress, but perhaps the biggest critique his rivals has been pounding on thus far is the fact that he has heavily donated to Republican officeholders –including Sen. Cornyn– in the past.

As I see the US Senate Democratic primary, there are only four candidates of any significance whatsoever: Alameel, Michael Fjetland, Harry Kim and Maxey Scherr. Kim, a physician from Odessa, has run a fairly low-profile campaign thus far but recently created a website, Facebook page and Twitter account. Of these candidates, it is Scherr who has hit Alameel the hardest on his allegedly insufficient progressive credentials.

Click here to read more!

More filings

I’d like to apologize for some inactivity recently, I have two finals and a 18 page paper due on Monday, so my blogging has had to take a little bit of a backseat. Anyways, with just two more days left in filing, there is a lot news to report upon both Statewide and at the Harris County level with the introduction of new candidates.

Most notably, the Dallas Morning News reports that Kesha Rogers will throw her tinfoil hat into the ring and seek the Democratic nomination for US Senator. Rogers, who has twice been the nominee for Congress in Sugar Land’s 22nd Congressional District, is a member of the Lyndon LaRouche political sect cult. This organization has little cohesive or consistent message besides revering LaRouche in a cult of personality. This organization is not really reminiscent of the Democratic Party in any way, spouting utterly nonsensical and conspiratorial views. Even the Morning News article notes of Rogers, “As an acolyte of perennial presidential fringe candidate Lyndon LaRouche, she believes the U.S. economy is secretly controlled by a cabal of London financial institutions.”

Also included in the Senate slates are Harry Kim, a dentist out of Odessa. I can’t really find much information one way or another on him. Brains & Eggs also counts Roman McAllen,  local architect, among the Senatorial candidates (though he has yet to file).

Click here to read about new candidates for Railroad Commission and County offices