2014’s first big poll

The Texas Tribune reports on a very comprehensive poll they conducted over just about every competitive primary in the State. The poll has a fairly substantial margin of error (upwards of 6% in the Democratic primary, specifically), so that is something to bear in mind when analyzing the results.

Simply put, the results paint a bad picture for the Democrats. Back at that time, Greg Abbott lead Wendy Davis by only five points; today, Abbott’s lead has grown to Eleven points. Other polls paint a similarly bleak picture for the Democrats, especially considering that these Texas Tribune polls have historically been overly generous to the Democratic candidate. Just a few days after that original Tribune poll, Public Policy Polling (a historically very accurate pollster) estimated Abbott’s lead at a whopping fifteen points. Accordingly, I am eager to see just how bad off the Democrats are doing when PPP releases its triannual February poll any day now.

Also of note here is that these polls were largely conducted before the Ted Nugent scandal really blew over regarding Greg Abbott’s campaign. Therefore, one could plausibly assert that this poll overvalues Davis’ problems emanating from “Trailergate” while simultaneously not taking to account Abbott’s recent woes. Among other issues with this poll was a misleading discrepancy between “registered” and “likely” voters. Additionally, the polls completely disregarded the portion of the electorate still undecided. I have recreated these polls with the undecideds built into the poll, as well as only taking note of the “registered” voters.

Click here for full results and graph!

Texpatriate endorses in Republican Governor primary

There has been much talk about the Republican Party’s need to lurch back towards the center in order to remain competitive into the future. Pundits and other prognosticators have all been quick to prescribe an invaluable need for moderation of immigration issues and other social disputes. The Governor of Louisiana, Bobby Jindal, even recently noted that the party needed to stop catering to alleged anti-intellectualism. Indeed, most would agree something is broken within the party, something that desperately needs to be fixed.

Cursory observations of the Republican primary for Governor would likely lead you to believe that Attorney General Greg Abbott is the only candidate. Indeed, while he is the frontrunner and is quite likely to win outright in the preliminary primary election, he has drawn three opponents. Two of these candidates, Larry Kilgore and Lisa Fritsch, might be even more conservative than Abbott, and represent more of the same for the Texas GOP. The last candidate, however, offers a unique point of view and a distinct brand of pragmatic Republicanism that Texans would be smart to support. Accordingly, this board endorses Miriam Martinez in the Republican primary for Governor of Texas.

Click here to read more!

Pauken drops out

The Texas Tribune reports that Tom Pauken, a former Chairman of the Texas Republican Party and Texas Workforce Commissioner, has dropped out of the Republican primary for Governor. Pauken first announced his candidacy in March, well before Attorney General Greg Abbott had announced his candidacy or incumbent Governor Rick Perry had even announced his forthcoming retirement. In fact, to a large extend, Pauken spent the first few months running against Perry.

He had an odd diversification of issues at the forefront of his campaign, though most were somewhat right-wing (with the notable exception of some pretty good educational reform suggestions). The campaign, almost originally founded upon the idea that Rick Perry would run once more, has never really had very good financially standing. Indeed, in announcing his withdrawal, Pauken cited a lack of cash in his race, as well as a heavy media bias against him. Pauken had not yet filed for Governor, so his name will not remain on any ballots to speak thereof.

Click here to read Pauken’s full statement!

Guv update 11/9

The biggest news today in the gubernatorial campaign has been the filing of both major candidates, Attorney General Greg Abbott and State Senator Wendy Davis. The Texas Tribune reports on the development, happening on the very first day of filing for the 2014 primary. Abbott, in his filing ceremony, took the predictable step of castigating what he called “California-style liberalism” and painted Davis as a super-liberal. Davis, on the other hand, did not call out Abbott by name but did criticize the alleged ‘business-as-usual’ of Texas Republicans.

Abbott reiterated his strong opposition to abortion and support of HB2, the omnibus anti-abortion bill that Davis famously filibustered in June. Davis did not mention abortion once; but more on this later. Among other gubernatorial filers was Lisa Fritsch, a Republican. Also filing was the first Democratic opponent to Wendy Davis in the Democratic primary: Ray Madrigal.

Click here to read more about Davis’ Democratic opponent and other tidbits from her campaign!

Another 2014 Tribune poll

The Texas Tribune, in cooperation with the University of Texas, has released a new 2014 General election poll. As far as I could figure, this is the first poll the institutions have released for the 2014 campaign. The results paint an interesting picture of the political landscape that could foster competitive elections for the first time in nearly 20 years.

First and foremost, let us look at the results:

Click here to view results and analysis!

Guv update 10/8

Today saw two major stories about the Governor’s race, one looking at the typical dichotomy of the candidates, and another discussing a possible shake-up.

First, Peggy Fikac at the Houston Chronicle published an article this morning, wherein she noted that the two candidates, Attorney General Greg Abbott and State Senator Wendy Davis, have already established themselves as different on many of the important issues. Among the many issues the two disagree on are licenses for illegal immigrants. Representing the typical interests of their respective parties, Davis supports such documents as a necessity in public safety, while Abbott opposes the measures. The Texas Republican Party is dominated by nativists who favor such positions as well as self-deportation.

Another major policy that Fikac notes a disagreement in is the American-US Air merger, which I have previously written upon extensively. Fikac then moves onto the more glamorous issues, specifically abortion and gun control.

Everyone and their uncle now is familiar with Wendy Davis’ pro-choice stance. Abbott, by comparison, is severely pro-life anti-choice. The omnibus anti-abortion bill will surely be a major flashpoint throughout the campaign. Additionally, gun control measures are mentioned. Davis is much more moderate on this issue. The astute will remember that Davis voted for the infamous “Guns on Cars” bill last session, which I strongly disagreed therewith.

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