2014’s first big poll

The Texas Tribune reports on a very comprehensive poll they conducted over just about every competitive primary in the State. The poll has a fairly substantial margin of error (upwards of 6% in the Democratic primary, specifically), so that is something to bear in mind when analyzing the results.

Simply put, the results paint a bad picture for the Democrats. Back at that time, Greg Abbott lead Wendy Davis by only five points; today, Abbott’s lead has grown to Eleven points. Other polls paint a similarly bleak picture for the Democrats, especially considering that these Texas Tribune polls have historically been overly generous to the Democratic candidate. Just a few days after that original Tribune poll, Public Policy Polling (a historically very accurate pollster) estimated Abbott’s lead at a whopping fifteen points. Accordingly, I am eager to see just how bad off the Democrats are doing when PPP releases its triannual February poll any day now.

Also of note here is that these polls were largely conducted before the Ted Nugent scandal really blew over regarding Greg Abbott’s campaign. Therefore, one could plausibly assert that this poll overvalues Davis’ problems emanating from “Trailergate” while simultaneously not taking to account Abbott’s recent woes. Among other issues with this poll was a misleading discrepancy between “registered” and “likely” voters. Additionally, the polls completely disregarded the portion of the electorate still undecided. I have recreated these polls with the undecideds built into the poll, as well as only taking note of the “registered” voters.

Click here for full results and graph!

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Texpatriate endorses in Republican Governor primary

There has been much talk about the Republican Party’s need to lurch back towards the center in order to remain competitive into the future. Pundits and other prognosticators have all been quick to prescribe an invaluable need for moderation of immigration issues and other social disputes. The Governor of Louisiana, Bobby Jindal, even recently noted that the party needed to stop catering to alleged anti-intellectualism. Indeed, most would agree something is broken within the party, something that desperately needs to be fixed.

Cursory observations of the Republican primary for Governor would likely lead you to believe that Attorney General Greg Abbott is the only candidate. Indeed, while he is the frontrunner and is quite likely to win outright in the preliminary primary election, he has drawn three opponents. Two of these candidates, Larry Kilgore and Lisa Fritsch, might be even more conservative than Abbott, and represent more of the same for the Texas GOP. The last candidate, however, offers a unique point of view and a distinct brand of pragmatic Republicanism that Texans would be smart to support. Accordingly, this board endorses Miriam Martinez in the Republican primary for Governor of Texas.

Click here to read more!

Pauken drops out

The Texas Tribune reports that Tom Pauken, a former Chairman of the Texas Republican Party and Texas Workforce Commissioner, has dropped out of the Republican primary for Governor. Pauken first announced his candidacy in March, well before Attorney General Greg Abbott had announced his candidacy or incumbent Governor Rick Perry had even announced his forthcoming retirement. In fact, to a large extend, Pauken spent the first few months running against Perry.

He had an odd diversification of issues at the forefront of his campaign, though most were somewhat right-wing (with the notable exception of some pretty good educational reform suggestions). The campaign, almost originally founded upon the idea that Rick Perry would run once more, has never really had very good financially standing. Indeed, in announcing his withdrawal, Pauken cited a lack of cash in his race, as well as a heavy media bias against him. Pauken had not yet filed for Governor, so his name will not remain on any ballots to speak thereof.

Click here to read Pauken’s full statement!

Another 2014 Tribune poll

The Texas Tribune, in cooperation with the University of Texas, has released a new 2014 General election poll. As far as I could figure, this is the first poll the institutions have released for the 2014 campaign. The results paint an interesting picture of the political landscape that could foster competitive elections for the first time in nearly 20 years.

First and foremost, let us look at the results:

Click here to view results and analysis!