Cynic

One of the things I have noticed since being up here in Mass is that the liberals here are optimistic and sunny and happy. Personally, I have little respect for the Massachusetts Democratic establishment (I mean, Scott Brown, come on), but I get that they are mostly optimistic whereas Democrats haven’t won statewide office in Texas since I was an infant. I have a really that Texas has turned me into quite the cynic. For example, I think Sadler and Petty and Hampton are all fantastic candidates, but at a certain point I accept that they will not win, nor come anywhere close to winning. However, my optimism has always been towards the future, towards this abstract idea that there will be a people’s backlash at the end of the decade, spurred on by demographic changes. A coalition of Latinos, African-Americans, Asians, Austinites, and Inner-loop professions will rise up to kick the good ol’ boys out of the capitol. So here is my timeline:


November 2012 — Romney defeats Obama in electoral college, Obama wins popular vote. Republicans pick up net gain of two seats in the Senate, Democrats gain about a dozen seats in the House. Statewide Republicans all win. Wendy Davis is re-elected barely, no change in State Senate. Democrats pick up a few seats in the State House.

November 2013 — Parker re-elected.

November 2014 — Republican elected Governor (and all statewide offices). Perry might even get it again, but I would say a primary challenger will knock him off. Democrats make gains in Congress.

November 2015 — First Hispanic mayor of Houston elected.

November 2016 — Romney defeated by Democrat, Democrats retake the House. Slight gains for Democrats in the State Legislature but Republicans hold onto statewide offices.

November 2017 — Hispanic mayor re-elected.

November 2018 — Castro/Davis elected Governor and Lieutenant Governor, respectively. Castro ushers in new era of hispanic lead Democratic rule in Texas.

Thoughts on the Senate race

In late July, Texas Democratic voters selected former State Representative Paul Sadler to run against the Republican for the US Senate. Most people expected Dew, but Ted Cruz somehow won it. Don’t even ask me how. Now, I fear that the Democrats may be squandering an unbelievably good opportunity for a statewide victory. Let me explain:

First of all, I want to say that I like Sadler. To quote a very wise man from the state convention, “All too often our Democrats [in Texas] are just soft Republicans”. Sadler is not a soft Republican, he has solutions and doesn’t run away from things like supporting gay marriage (cough, cough Mayor White). However, like any statewide Democratic candidate, Sadler is woefully underfunded. It is my understanding that he can only afford one campaign office. Given this, it truly disappointed me that he chose Austin as that one location. This austin-centrism of Tex Dems is the whole reason I started my original blog in the first place. It is ridiculous and it is not a winning strategy. Travis County will go blue, everyone knows that. So will Dallas. Harris County is a bit more of a tossup, but we have a very competent County Leader in Lane Lewis so I don’t feel to bad. The true epicenter of Sadler’s (and other’s) campaigns should be San Antonio.

San Antonio and Bexar County are both over 60% Latino, but Bexar county is still red in many ways. Solidifying the county would be HUGE momentum for the state Democrats. Further, San Antonio is the gateway to the valley, and once everything south of San Antonio can become blue, the state can become blue. This is what makes Julian Castro so appealing for a statewide run. Surely, if he runs, his base would be in San Antonio.