2014’s first big poll

The Texas Tribune reports on a very comprehensive poll they conducted over just about every competitive primary in the State. The poll has a fairly substantial margin of error (upwards of 6% in the Democratic primary, specifically), so that is something to bear in mind when analyzing the results.

Simply put, the results paint a bad picture for the Democrats. Back at that time, Greg Abbott lead Wendy Davis by only five points; today, Abbott’s lead has grown to Eleven points. Other polls paint a similarly bleak picture for the Democrats, especially considering that these Texas Tribune polls have historically been overly generous to the Democratic candidate. Just a few days after that original Tribune poll, Public Policy Polling (a historically very accurate pollster) estimated Abbott’s lead at a whopping fifteen points. Accordingly, I am eager to see just how bad off the Democrats are doing when PPP releases its triannual February poll any day now.

Also of note here is that these polls were largely conducted before the Ted Nugent scandal really blew over regarding Greg Abbott’s campaign. Therefore, one could plausibly assert that this poll overvalues Davis’ problems emanating from “Trailergate” while simultaneously not taking to account Abbott’s recent woes. Among other issues with this poll was a misleading discrepancy between “registered” and “likely” voters. Additionally, the polls completely disregarded the portion of the electorate still undecided. I have recreated these polls with the undecideds built into the poll, as well as only taking note of the “registered” voters.

Click here for full results and graph!

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Texpatriate endorses in Democratic Governor Primary

This board would like to preface its comments by noting that we like State Senator Wendy Davis (D-Tarrant County) in her, albeit uphill, bid to become the next Governor of Texas. She has shown us time and time again that anything is possible in this great country of ours, even for a single mother at 19, living in a trailer park. She pulled herself up by her bootstraps, went to college, went to Law School at Harvard and made an honest living before starting down the road to public service. In both the Fort Worth City Council and the Texas Senate, she has continued to exemplify some of the best qualities one may look for in a politician. She holds steady to her principles, sometimes for hours on end, though still retains a pragmatic touch when it comes to lawmaking and deals. Many of us would be not only willing, but eager, to vote for her in a general election if it were held today.

Sen. Davis has an opponent in the Democratic primary, though. Besides a lonely profile of the challenger in the Houston Chronicle, however, one would not know it. In countless news articles, Sen. Davis has been referred to as the presumptive Democratic nominee, sometimes without any admission of the factual liberties taken in the title. With only one opponent, however, Sen. Davis got off much easier than the previous Democratic nominee for Governor, Bill White. The former Mayor of Houston faced six challengers in 2010’s Democratic primary, including one well-financed and ostensibly credible opponent.

Click here to read more!

Guv update 11/9

The biggest news today in the gubernatorial campaign has been the filing of both major candidates, Attorney General Greg Abbott and State Senator Wendy Davis. The Texas Tribune reports on the development, happening on the very first day of filing for the 2014 primary. Abbott, in his filing ceremony, took the predictable step of castigating what he called “California-style liberalism” and painted Davis as a super-liberal. Davis, on the other hand, did not call out Abbott by name but did criticize the alleged ‘business-as-usual’ of Texas Republicans.

Abbott reiterated his strong opposition to abortion and support of HB2, the omnibus anti-abortion bill that Davis famously filibustered in June. Davis did not mention abortion once; but more on this later. Among other gubernatorial filers was Lisa Fritsch, a Republican. Also filing was the first Democratic opponent to Wendy Davis in the Democratic primary: Ray Madrigal.

Click here to read more about Davis’ Democratic opponent and other tidbits from her campaign!