Stupid musings on the future

We, here at Texpatriate, haven’t decided to play the game of futurology in a while. Since the quintessential cynic in me was wrong about Mitt Romney being elected President, I might have to redo my old timeline.

November/December 2013-Annise Parker is re-elected after defeating, among others, Ben Hall. May or not be the need for a runoff election.

March 2014-Greg Abbott defeats Rick Perry in the primary for Governor. David Dewhurst is squeezed into a runoff with one of his many challengers (he may or may not win the runoff). George P. Bush cruises to victory in his run for Land Commissioner. The Democrats, if they are unsuccessful in drafting a superstar (like Tommy Lee Jones or Cecile Richards), essentially concede defeat by not running competitive candidates against Abbott and Cornyn and the like.

May 2014-Dewhurst may or may not survive his runoff election.

November 2014-Republicans take control of the US Senate, Democrats pick up a few seats in the US House. Democrats picks up a few states in both houses of the State Legislature; GOP maintains control thereof and of all statewide offices.

November 2015-Houston elects first Latino mayor.

November 2016-Hillary Clinton elected President; Democrats retake US Senate, pick up a few seats in the US House (still not control). Democrats pick up a few states in State Legislature, all Statewides stay with the GOP.

November 2017-Latino mayor re-elected.

November 2018-First cracks in the GOP barrier. I still am hoping for the Castro/Davis ticket.

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Perry 14/16

The Chronicle (and the Huffington Post) is writing about Governor Rick Perry’s political future. The HuffPo article mentioned that Perry is getting ready for a big announcement in “July 2013” about the future. Both articles also talk about Grover Norquist taking the Governor under his wing for a possible future run for the Oval Office.

Basically, most people think that Perry will run for re-election to a FOURTH full term as Governor in 2014. I, for one, think that, absent a primary challenge from George P. Bush (unlikely), he will easily win said fourth term. If previous midterm elections are any indicator, then the 2014 election will spell out yet another shellacking for Democrats, as their voters simply do not wander into a poll booths without a presidential election. Therefore, the newly re-elected Governor could very easily preside over another Republican supermajority in the state legislature, and come out of the session in June of 2015 very, very strong, possibly setting up another presidential run.

Of course, this is the worst-case scenario, but unfortunately, that seems to be the only scenario for us Texas Democrats recently. Now, as I have started many times before, I do have trust in the leadership of the TX Dems for the long term, but at the current moment, the demographics just aren’t there. If Obama does comparably well, and the economy recovers, 2014 might not be too bad of an election year, thus depriving Perry of his coveted supermajority. Additionally, he could get knocked off by Bush (or maybe even someone like Abbott) in the primary, and there is always a chance for the dark house Democrat like Tommy Lee Jones beating him in the general election. Again, both are unlikely.

Fortunately, the best case for why “Perry ’16” will be a failure is the reason that “Perry ’12” was a failure: the Governor is not very bright. He would, mark my words, stumble again in the debates and probably give another speech where he gets the election date wrong, voting age wrong, and acts like he is inebriated. Perry could not win, or even come close, in the weakest Republican primary field in fifty years. When the bigshots like Jeb Bush and Chris Christie toss their hats into the ring, Perry won’t stand a chance.