Parker’s ‘grassroots’ rally

The Houston Chronicle (stupid paywall) reports on the recent grassroots rally Annise Parker held to start off her heavy campaign. I went to the rally myself (I’ve gotten a few calls–evidently I was on the news), and I have a few thoughts of the top of my head.

First, I truly did like Parker’s speech. Often times, politicians (even ostensibly good ones, like the President) have to, well, act like useless politicians and simply use a bunch of buzz words in rah-rah speeches that lack any real substance. Parker’s speech yesterday was not like that. She very clearly, competently explained what she did in the past. She did not run from her record. It was quite refreshing to see a politician do that. Unfortunately, Parker did not offer many specifics, and might have dismissed her opponent, Ben Hall, too much. I am not someone who often thinks a politician should have attacked her or his opponent more, but this might have been an example. The tax fiasco of Hall is sort of a deal-breaker for me and a lot of people, Parker should use it. Go for jugular.

I was disappointed, however, to see how few elected officials were at the rally in solidarity with the Mayor. Vince Ryan was the only elected official there, and there were only a handful of candidates there.

Parker’s list of supporters did not have any surprises either. The typical liberal, white intelligentsia (Chris Bell, Kristi Thibaut, Glen Maxey and Scott Hochberg) are always a staple of the campaign. Repeat endorsers from 2009, Jessica Farrar, Garnet Coleman and Borris Miles, were not developments as well. Al Hoang’s endorsement was probably the most surprising.

Off the Kuff and Brains & Eggs have more.

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Musings on the election

First up, Congrats to President Obama! Four more years! The President won Harris County by a few hundreds votes. Democrats expand their majority in the Senate to 55 and lessen the Republican majority in the House. All fantastic news.

Statewides
Republicans keep the Railroad Commission and the Supreme Court and the Court of Criminal Appeals–no surprise there. However, Keith Hampton got clobbered, which is upsetting.

Courts of Appeals
1st and 14th stay all Republican, which is not surprising.

State Senate
Wendy Davis got re-elected. The composition stays at 19-12. Mario Gallegos re-elected posthumously, which means we will see a special election.

State House
Democrats pick up six or seven seats. Composition is at 95-55. Ann Johnson was defeated, again disappointing.

County Judges
11th–Mike Miller (D) re-elected.
61st–Al Bennett (D) re-elected.
80th–Larry Weiman (D) re-elected.
125th–Kyle Carter (D) re-elected.
127th–R.K. Sandhill (D) re-elected.
129th–Michael Gomez (D) re-elected.
133rd–Jaclanel McFarland (D) re-elected.
151st–Mike Engelhart (D) re-elected.
152nd–Robert Schaffer (D) re-elected.
164th–Alexandra Smoots-Hogan (D) re-elected.
165th–Josephina Rendon (D) defeated by Elizabeth Ray (R).
174th–Ruben Guerrero (D) re-elected.
176th–Shawna Reagin (D) defeated by Stacey Bond (R).
177th–Ryan Patrick (R) re-elected.
178th–David Mendoza (D) re-elected.
179th–Randy Roll (D) defeated by Kristin Guiney (R).
215th–Elaine Palmer (D) elected. Damn.
333rd–Tad Halbach (R) re-elected.
334th–Ken Wise (R) re-elected.
337th–Herb Richie (D) defeated by Renee Magee (R). Again, damn.
338th–Hazel Jones (D) defeated by Brock Thomas (R).
339th–Maria Jackson (D) re-elected.
351st–Mark Ellis (R) re-elected.
County Court 1–Debra Mayfield (R) re-elected.
County Court 2–Theresa Chang (R) re-elected.

Of the nineteen Democratic Judges: 14 win re-election and 5 lose.
Of the six Republican Judges: 6 win re-election.
Final Tally: 14 Demorats, 11 Republicans.

County Officials
DA–Mike Anderson (R) wins. No surprise.
Sheriff–Adrian Garcia (D) re-elected. Again, no surprise.
County Attorney–Vince Ryan (D) re-elected. Great News!
Tax Collector–Mike Sullivan (R) wins. However, it is close and Bennett hasn’t conceded yet.

Referendums
METRO Prop passed, City props passed, and all the Bond measures passed.

City Council
Martin wins without a runoff.

Discussion comes later.

What I think will happen

Keeping in touch with my self-imposed moratorium upon Presidential election coverage, I will not even mention that race (You can see what I had said previous in my post “Cynic“). However, I think this will be a good way for progressives to brace ourselves for what may come next.

Every statewide seat (except Keller’s): SAFE Republican
I think this is a no-brainier here, considering that the Democrats did not even bother to field candidates in some of these races. I really do like Michele Petty and Paul Salder, but this is not going to be a repeat of 2008, and even in 2008 we got our butts kicked.

Court of Criminal Appeals, Position 1: TOSSUP
Keith Hampton, especially in the (unlikely) event of a major Obama victory, could build enough of a coalition between Democrats, Independents, and pragmatic Republicans to victory. Keller is relying on people to simply vote straight Republican, which they probably will.

14th Court of Appeals, 1st Court of Appeals: SAFE Republican
Same logic as the statewide seats.

134th State Representative: LEAN Republican
2012 will not be as good of a year as 2006, which is the last time an incumbent in this district was unseated. Also, Davis is a much more civil campaigner than Martha Wong.

215th District Court: LIKELY Republican
Ken Shortreed is depending upon enough angry Democrats (like me) to vote for him. It will probably push him over the top.

Remaining local judicial races: LEAN Republican
Harris County will probably go red, especially in downballot races.

Sheriff: LEAN Democratic
I think Garcia can put together enough of a coalition with moderate Republicans to avoid defeat. The endorsement of the “C club” didn’t hurt either.

District Attorney: SAFE Republican
Self-explanatory.

Tax Collector: LIKELY Republican
Even in 2008, tax czar and DA went Republican. Additionally, CM Sullivan is a popular incumbent who has attracted quite a few Democrats (even endorsed by the JHV).

County Attorney: TOSSUP
Vince Ryan has some cross-party support, but again the Republican tilt on the election does not help.

City Council, E: LIKELY Martin
Martin has the establishment support from Sullivan, who is still quite popular.

 

Again, Democrats need to donate to Garcia, Ryan, and Hampton–NOT Obama. Obama has enough money, he is out-raising the Koch brothers!

Endorsements: Civil Court at Law & Countywides

Civil Court at Law 1
I break with the Chronicle to endorse the Democrat, Erica Graham. The paper did call her a “well qualified candidate”, and I general break with the Republican line on Civil affairs.

Civil Court at Law 2
I  break with the Chronicle to endorse the Democrat, Damon Crenshaw, for the same reasons as above.

County Attorney
The Chronicle has not endorsed in this race yet. I choose the incumbent, Democrat Vince Ryan. Vince Ryan, since his service many years ago at City Hall, has consistently been an advocate of the people. The County Attorney of Harris County does a very limited job, as opposed to say Travis County, but I believe that Vince Ryan has served in this limited role quite well.

Sheriff
The Chronicle has not endorsed in this race yet. I choose the incumbent, Democrat Adrian Garcia. Another City Hall veteran, I believe the Sheriff has done a tremendous job since taking office nearly four years ago. No reason to cast out this officeholder.

District Attorney
I make no endorsement. I would have voted for Lykos over Lloyd Wayne Olliver (not even a real Democrat), but Mike Anderson is just too radical for me. The Chronicle endorsed Anderson.

Tax Collector
The Chronicle has made no endorsement yet. I choose the Republican, Councilmember Mike Sullivan. I had the honor to work with Councilmember Sullivan for three years on Bagby Street, and he devotes an integrity and sense of justice to the job that is simply unparalleled. He will routinely give up his weekends to go on patrol with HPD or have dinner with our firefighters. While I don’t agree with his politics, I consider him to be one of the most honorable politicians in this city, and look forward to voting for him.